為了美麗的地面: 活到老，學到老，做到老

為了美麗的地面: 活到老，學到老，做到老

Why are smarter people often lonelier?

You are probably thinking, Einstein is not a loner. He has a full and meaningful life.

Fine, I admit the title is a generalization that tries to grab your attention. Many smart people I know are not loners, but many more are, so I say, "Intelligence is positively correlated with loneliness." Trust me, it's not always related to arrogance. Here's my little explanation.

First of all, human intelligence follows a normal distribution. Most people have IQ between 90 and 110. In fact, 95% people have IQ between 70 and 130. We further assume that intelligence is the rate of learning, i.e. the velocity of learning. Then some grade 8 physics will help us out in solving this question.

Velocity = change in distance / change in time
Distance = Velocity * Time

Distance is a proxy for accumulated knowledge/skill or accomplishments of a person. To make the problem simple, we set the time constant to 25 (years old). Here's something interesting, the distance probability distribution function is a log-normal distribution, not a normal distribution.

Why is that? Let's use our intuition. For people who have IQ<100, their "distance" is <2500, but IQ<100 consist of half of our population. Let's plug in more numbers, IQ130 (0.5%) => Distance 3250, IQ160 (<0.1%) =>  Distance 4000. While the distances grow in the same ratio, the "next person" is further away for smarter people, simply because the outliers grow further and further apart after being multiplied by a constant.

We often say, birds of a feather flock together. This is also true for making friends. It is difficult to talk to someone who has no idea what you are talking about, or listen to someone who you have no idea what he/she's talking about.

Is there a moral to this story? Yes there is.

• If you are smart, don't find someone as smart as you to have kids with
• If your intelligence is on average, congratulations, you are more likely to have many friends and a social life, perhaps a successful business
• If you are dumb........you couldn't have read till the end. Don't be so humble.

An uncertain future for eBooks

Bill Gates was right about the third personal electronic device that people are going to own, but his team wasn't able to deliver the product that the public wanted. Perhaps the hardware wasn't ready for his vision to realize. Oh well, he has more important work to do now. :)

I owned my first "third" device even before I got a "second" device (a laptop). It was the Asus R2H. This may look like an antique to you, but it attracted a lot of attention from people around me. I guess you can compare this to a poor guy's sports car. The R2H was sold in less than a year of usage. It is more portable than a traditional laptop, but the performance was just unacceptable.

The two laptop computers that I own afterwards are more traditional, but they were niche market products, too. I still own both tablets after two years because it's so hard to find a suitable buyer for them. This is one of the down side from owning something unique.

Then comes the Kindle DX. The history and the specifications of Kindle can be found here. The device was bought exactly one year ago. The philosophy I hold is:

• vision is much more expensive than a few hundred dollars
• best way to learn English is to immerse oneself in a English environment, including reading books
• it attracts attentions

So I was conscious that $489 is overpriced and Amazon probably make 60%+ margin after paying the manufacturing cost to Foxconn (a Taiwanese semi conductor manufacturer). Then, iPad was launched in the 2nd quarter 2010. People had a lot of doubt about the product until they see the financial statement of Apple. Soon Amazon lowers the price of Kindle to match the competition from iPad, Sony Pocket Readers, and Nook. 

If there's one principle in new technology products (toys) that holds true throughout time, it must be "the more the better, the less sales for less". Everyone knows that iPad is just a super-sized iPhone, but the functionality and versatility are just much more than Amazon Kindle. Even as a Amazon lover and an Apple hater, I would rather pay $550 for an iPad than $400 for a new Kindle DX. So...the situation for Amazon is pretty dire unless the firm doesn't care about this product line.

If I were the manager in the Kindle division (which I am not), a few steps would ensure Kindle surviving as a niche product. 

• maintain perspective consumers by offering upgrade to future Kindles at <20% margin ($50 trade-in?)
• further lower the price of Kindle DX to stay competitive with iPad (the book sale is more important than the Kindle sale)
• through alliances, create a united front or Cartel for ebooks (trust me, Amazon doesn't need more breaking-neck competition in such a small market)
• through merger and acquisition, tap into other regional markets, such as European and Asian markets

So...what's next? The cards are currently played by Apple and Amazon, but tonnes of people want to get into the game, including RIM (a Canadian company that makes Blackberry, and no, we are not farmers). If Amazon can walk away with money on hand, then we can see Kindle 4, 5 and so on then I would be a happy camper. Too bad I am not a prophet so I don't know.......

Some Nerdy Stuff

• Kindle DX has a screen dimension of 139mm*202mm, which is approximately 1 : square root of 2, the ratio of ISO 216. This size is comparable to A5 or half of letter size. For more information, the links is on your right side
• The viewable area doesn't grow linearly with the diagonal length of a screen, for detailed calculation please check here

Hell! It's about time!

How many times have I attempt at writing something? I lost track of it. This is me trying to re-initiate my blog with various topics. Hopefully, this time I have the persistence to provide my readers with something interesting.

What does this blog have to offer?

• theories and discoveries from me
• financial market observations
• Starcraft II (perhaps?)
• some Chinese posts - the posts will be translated into English if they are originally written in Chinese
• interesting links and references - on your right side

What do I want to get out of this?

• me, me, me - it's not often that one can talk without caring too much about the listener
• writing in English - English is my second language and I want to learn to do this well. Please forgive me for the grammatical errors. I'll proofread as much as I can.
• express ideas - I love sharing my discoveries, from tiny to huge
• connect with perspective and prospective friends online - feel free to leave comments :)

2010Q4 Objective

• write stuff that interests people
• have more than 1 comment to reply to every week
• generate weekly traffic of 1,000+ views
• recover Google AdWords spendings

Some interesting facts in designing this blog

I admit that this is the first time I am serious about keeping a blog, so all these may sound rudimentary to you, but bear with me and you may find something fun.

• the top photo as of today was taken by me in Eugene, Oregon. You can find that location on Google Maps
• the warmer background and a colder colour scheme are chosen to establish a quiet atmosphere for the reader
• most common display resolutions are 1680*1050 and 1280*800 as of 2010, so I figure you can see the whole width without scrolling (let me know if not)
• the length and the width of each section are set to golden ratio.
• no, I am not going to introduce myself, because I suck with job interviews :D

醫生的財富

台灣人有一種迷思，那就是醫生賺很多錢。我以前也是這種想法，但後來眼界比較開闊之後才發現不是這回事。主要是「很多錢」的定義是如何？任何職業都是一樣的，只有頂尖人物才能擁有高的報酬 (而多數人都是平凡人)。

所以普通的醫生比其他職業有優勢的是「起跑點」比較前面。「有錢」絕對不是一個月二三十萬能打發的。一萬到五萬 & 五萬到二十萬生活品質的提升是差不多的，因為財富和生活品質是邊際報酬遞減的。

那醫生的優勢究竟在哪裡，就是在儲蓄與投資。因為錢生錢永遠比人生錢還快。

在加拿大看到一些普通的華人醫生，真正成為不必為生財煩惱的人還是很少。(健保越健全家庭醫生 pay越低 XD)。差異不大的薪水，生活品質卻差異很大。有些人把每個月開銷大，長期下來不過收支平衡。有些人寧願貸款負債：開餐館、開個 Dollar Store賣東西、找人合夥開補習班、買賣房地產。這幾年大多頭造就很大的成就差異。(尤其是房地產，一轉手就差五十萬加幣，醫生努力存十年也沒這麼多吧。 =_=+)。

年薪百萬都是小錢。省著點花，做投資，才有不為生活擔憂的機會。

看錯做對與看對做錯

市場參與者，無論是技術分析派或基本分析派都會對後勢有些看法。因為剛開始學這些分析時，學習者想要得到「預測未來的能力」。尤其是技術分析派，到了中期十幾個指標衍伸出相反的看法。再加上 Victor好用的 2B、1-2-3、4day rule和一般的順勢指標會推算出矛盾。讓人無所適從。

但是系統交易中，只會有一個方向，不是空就是多。交易技巧的前提是不對行情做任何預期，而是以交易訊號為主。為什麼要選擇交易系統而不選擇「用看的」？

1. 交易系統內建停損機制，不需人為選擇停損點。
2. 交易系統只用特定指標，不會三天打魚兩天曬網，一天用 KD、另一天用 MACD。
3. 交易系統建立在長期穩定的贏多輸少之上。

如果交易者可以靠自己達到這些，就不需要依賴交易系統。

交易的動機

今天在 CBC聽到一個驚人的新聞，那就是墨西哥農民由於政府維持價格機制失敗 (資金調動不足) ，食品價格飆漲，群情激憤抗議，a riot almost broke out。墨西哥的主食是玉米。所以我下了個決定，那就是這段期間，小麥、玉米、黃豆我都不做多。因為做多相當於資金流入炒高食品價格。即使我今天只是個窮學生，也會選擇有所不為。

動機為什麼重要，動機決定了未來的成就，很多人問他，為什麼交易，都只是為了賺錢，這是最小的動機。我寧願相信冥冥中自有因果。要真正最賺錢的交易方法，莫過於神通了，但真正有神通的人，已經沒有賺錢的念頭了。交易賺錢到底是為了什麼，完成自己未竟的理想？救助苦難人類？很多成名的交易者，下場不是太好，難道只是偶然嗎？交易冠軍馬丁的身體健康，李佛摩橫死。成為一個高明的交易者是好事，但做個好人才是福氣。

很多成功的的人做了很大的慈善事業，大部份的人總以 為因為他們有錢，所以才做這些事；事實上，我的感想是在一開始在他們還未成功了，心裡就有這些動機了，只是後來心想事成了。

加碼與停損

從事金融交易至今，令我最印象深刻的是兩個詞 ─ 加碼 & 停損。

加碼代表正向勢力，當利潤已經出現時，它會照顧自己。我們要把利潤擴大的方法，就是把桌上的籌碼放回去遊戲裡面，讓利潤繼續延伸。生涯規劃做決策可以參考。有一件事你比別人強，就是長處。把已經學到一個階段的能力，投資更多的時間進去，它們會各自組織整合，讓我們的能力更上一層樓 ─ 專業的提升。經營人際也一樣。和人的感情是累積的，只要維持住原有的，不斷加進去新的共同記憶，情誼會越來越深。

如果說加碼是甜蜜的，停損無異是不可不承擔的痛苦。多數的時候局勢不利會往更不利發展，柳暗花明又一村可遇而不可求。長痛不如短痛。不壯士斷腕的結果往往是更重的傷，或是留下永遠無法癒合的傷口。我常常對自己說：「不要跟紅豆談戀愛。」(我交易東京紅豆)